When you get this low in the rankings every back, whether it's a usage/timeshare issue or history of injuries, has a serious red flag. But the truth is, this is where leagues are won. One of these backs will emerge as a fantasy #1 back. Think 2009 Jones-Drew/Ray Rice, 2010 Foster or Stevan Ridley in 2012. You don't win leagues by drafting AP first overall this year but by taking a shot on him in the 3rd round coming off ACL surgery in '12. You'll find the value here:
21. Chris Ivory, NYJ - He's young enough (25) and fresh enough (256 career carries) to remove the injury prone tag. 5.1 YPC for his career is impressive but can he do it for a full season? The Jets offensive line is severely underrated when it comes to run blocking. They lost RG Brandon Moore but they added two above-average run blocking guards in Stephen Peterman and Willie Colon. NY will obviously lean on the run with Geno Smith and Mark Sanchez under center.
22. Lamar Miller, MIA - I have to give him credit for doing all the right things this off season. Last year he was 3rd string behind Bush and Daniel Thomas because he didn't know the offense and couldn't pass block. This spring he worked on his pass blocking, which he drew praise for from coach Philbin and Tannehill, as well as meeting regularly with fellow Miami alum Frank Gore. The Fins offensive line isn't good, so be prepared for some down weeks. He is VERY inexperienced (51 career carries) but his one cut running style fits with the Dolphins zone blocking scheme and his speed is off the charts. The workload will be there and if the improved pass blocking is accurate, then the PPR friendly pass catching will make him a legit RB #2.
23. DeMarco Murray, DAL -
Injuries. They have plagued Murray since college and even when healthy
last year he averaged 4.1 YPC. His workload will be there because of
the lack of viable options behind him and Garrett stated they plan to
run the ball more this year, plan being the key word. Keys to his success: Staying healthy (obvious) and Garrett committing to the run. The Cowboys run blocking is quite elite, grading out 7th overall in Pro Football Focus's 2012 ratings. If he logs 225-250 carries he is a lock for top 12 production. +++ pass catcher.
24. Maurice Jones-Drew. JAX - Probably the hardest player to rank. He suffered the dreaded Lisfranc fracture in 2012, plays for the rebuilding Jacksonville Jaguars and the Gabbert/Henne Qb situation is arguably the worst in the NFL. Making things worse, backup RB Justin Forsett is a pretty solid NFL back. I however am seeing somewhat of a silver lining in his early departure last season. When the '13 season gets underway in September he will have about 10 months of rest from the time of the injury leaving him somewhat "fresh". New coach Gus Bradley, former Seattle DC, will implement run first offense and you could argue the Jags have a top LT/RT combo in Eugene Monroe and Luke Joeckel. His ability to catch passes (46.3 per season 2006-2011) is exactly what will keep him fantasy relevant week to week. He's still only 28.
25. Ryan Matthews, SD - I could spell out the reasons why the Chargers offensive line is much better than last years but this article written by SB Nation's Richard Wade says it 10x better than I could. The line improvement is the #1 reason why I have Matthews in my top 25 despite being the biggest bust of 2012. His 2011 line: 14 games, 1,546 total yards, 4.9 YPC, 50 recptions, 6 tds. Those are monster numbers and if his offensive line can block for him this year I can see him getting back to similar '11 numbers. Woodhead and Ronnie Brown will handle some 3rd down duties but Matthews is the far superior talented back. If he gets his confidence back he'll be back in there on passing downs. I'm buying him.
No comments:
Post a Comment