Monday, July 22, 2013

Randall Cobb : The Human Swiss Army Knife

When looking at the most recent ADP reports I became fascinated in where Packers wide receiver Randall Cobb was being drafted in leagues.  The most recent report has him going in the 3rd round at  30th overall and the 8th wide receiver off the board.  Behind the likes of Calvin, Green, Dez, Marshall, Julio, D. Thomas, Roddy and Larry Fitz and just before guys like Harvin, Andre Johnson, Cruz, V Jax and Welker.  I decided to investigate the appropriateness of his ADP.  Cobb was extremely impressive in '13.  As a second year wide out in a severely crowded receiving core (Jennings, Jordy Nelson, James Jones, Driver, Finley), Cobb forced the Packers to keep him on the field as he racked up 80 catches on 104 targets.  I recently watched a week 11 matchup between GB and Detroit, a game in which Cobb terrorized the Lions for 72 yards on 9 receptions (including a 22 yard GW Td) while adding 19 yards via the rush.  I tracked and recorded each of his touches and where he was lined up for each one of them:




Touch # Formation Lined up Result
1 Shotgun Left HB Rec - 5 Yards
2 Shotgun Left HB Rush - 4 Yards
3 Shotgun Left Inside Slot Rec- 9 Yards
4 Shotgun Right Slot Rec - 4 Yards
5 Shotgun Right HB Rec - 3 Yards
6 Shotgun Right Slot Rec - 7 Yards
7 Shotgun Right Slot Rec - 11 Yards
8 Shotgun Right Slot Rec - 10 Yards
9 Singleback HB Rush - 15 yards
10 Shotgun Left Slot Rec - 3 Yards
11 Shotgun Left Slot Rec - 22 Yard TD



It was obvious from the get-go that Rodgers prefers to get the ball to Cobb quickly off the line allowing him to get into open space and eat up valuable yards fast and efficiently.  Most of Cobb's receptions came within 5-6 yards from the line of scrimmage and he routinely showed the ability to find the first down marker.  His one down the field reception came on a 4th quarter fade route in which Rodgers lofted it to the back of the end zone and Cobb did the rest, fighting off corner cover and safety help for the game winning touch down.  Despite his small frame (5'10", 192) he doesn't shy away from contact and more than once ran over defenders for the extra yard, very similar to the way Percy Harvin (5'11, 184) plays.  The Packers, as evidence from the data above, know that Cobb is best when he is moved all across the formation finding the match ups he can abuse.  Safeties and slot corners simply cannot guard him and Rodgers knows it.  The most impressive play, however, didn't come in the air but rather on the ground.  With just under 2:00 minutes remaining in the 3rd quarter Cobb lined up as the lone half back in a singleback formation.  On an outside toss to the left, Cobb followed his left guard and tackle (who pulled BEAUTIFULLY) looking like a seasoned running back on his way to a 15 yard gain and a Packer first down.  His multifaceted repertoire was on full display.  Look for OC Tom Clements to increase Cobb's usage in '13.

From a fantasy perspective I think Cobb is currently undervalued, especially in PPR formats.  Owners who fear Jones and Nelson will steal from Cobb's production need to realize the difference in the former and latter's game.  With Jermichael Finley doing his best to lose Rodger's trust, Cobb has taken advantage and is the clear #1 target in the middle of the field while Nelson and Jones handle outside duties.  If the Packers ultimately decide to remove Cobb from return duties he can focus on becoming the best receiver possible, working with the most elite QB in the NFL.  I'm buying him for 90-95 catches and 1000+ yards.  The only wide receivers I'm taking over Randall Cobb are Megatron, Dez, Julio and Green. 


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