2014 NFL Draft: Top 10 Recap w/ Contract Situations

Expected contract totals are courtesy of overthecap.com.  All 1^st round contracts are over the course of 4 years. 

Houston Texans: 

Jadeveon Clowney

• After weeks and weeks of rumors that had Houston trading out of the no. 1 spot, ultimately they decide to stay home and take Clowney. 
• In Romeo Crennel’s 3-4 base defense, he will inherit a rush linebacker role early on, perhaps even on the same side as JJ Watt. 
• Brooks Reed and Whitney Mercilus – the incumbent OLB’s – will battle it out for the other spot. 

Expected Contract Total Value:  $24.27 Million

Signing Bonus: $15.97 Million

St. Louis Rams:

Greg Robinson

• No surprises at the top 2 spots. 
• The Rams grab a mauling run blocker who could play both LT/RT in 2014. 
• Jake Long’s return from a torn ACL/MCL (suffered in December) will eventually determine Robinson’s short-term position.
• He projects as the future at left tackle. 

Expected Contract Total Value:  $23.19 Million

Signing Bonus:  $15.18 Million

Jacksonville Jaguars:

Blake Bortles: 

• First surprise of the night. 
• GM David Caldwell gets his franchise QB and can finally put the Chad Henne/Blaine Gabbert era behind him and his fan base. 
• It could be argued that Bortles would still be on the board heading into day 2 but you never know where Cleveland or Minnesota had him on their wish lists. 
• Jacksonville needs to surround this kid with talent – Cecil Shorts and Ace Sanders are JAX’s projected starting WRs. 

Expected Contract Total Value:  $22.49 Million

Signing Bonus:  $14.68 Million

Buffalo Bills: (traded with Cleveland)

Sammy Watkins:

• Cleveland gets a 2015 1^st and 5^th rounder plus the Bills 2014 1^st round pick (no. 9 overall) in exchange for the 4^th pick. 
• The Bills spent a 2^nd and 3^rd round pick in ’13 on receivers Robert Woods and Marquise Goodwin respectively so this one comes as a surprise to me. 
• With that being said, the Bills were 29^th in yards after the catch last year so Watkins specialty will be put to good use. 
• Stevie Johnson could have played his last game as a Bill.

Expected Contract Total Value:  $21.7 Million

Signing Bonus:  $14.1 Million

Oakland Raiders:

Khalil Mack

• At 5, and with a ton of needs, the Raiders stay true to their board and take the best player available in Mack. 
• Mack will compete with Kevin Burnett for the weak-side linebacker role in the 4-3 base D. 
• Sio Moore operates on the strong side. 

Expected Contract Total Value:  $20.32 Million

Signing Bonus: $13.1 Million

Atlanta Falcons:

Jake Matthews: 

• Falcons “most likely” would have preferred to get their hands on Mack or Robinson but Matthews is a fine consolation prize. 
• His versatility across the offensive line suits the Falcons well giving them multiple options with the young tackle. 
• The best bet is Matthews will push Lamar Holmes (struggled mightily in ’13) for the starting RT spot in ’14.

Expected Contract Total Value:  $17.85 Million
Signing Bonus: $11.3 Million

Tampa Bay Bucs:

Mike Evans

• Bucs now have a dynamic double-threat on the outside with V-Jax and Evans (both 6 foot 5 inches) and a decent tight end in Brandon Myers for Josh McCown to work with. 
• Don’t be surprised if the Bucs go WR again this weekend; they don’t have a legit no. 3 receiver on this roster. 

Expected Contract Total Value:  $15.87 Million

Signing Bonus: $9.86 Million

Cleveland Browns:  (traded with Minnesota) 

Justin Gilbert

• MIN moves from no. 8 to no. 9 spot.
• Minnesota receives a 2014 5^th round pick from Cleveland. 
• No. 2 corner spot, opposite of Joe Haden, was huge need for Browns.
• Gilbert most athletic corner in draft but not a finished product. 
• Should benefit from working with HC Mike Pettine, who has coached some of the better corners in the NFL – Revis. Antonio Cromartie, Stephon Gilmore, Leodis McKelvin. 
• Should be no. 2 corner on opening day.

Expected Contract Total Value:  $13.89 Million

Signing Bonus: $8.42 Million

Minnesota Vikings

Anthony Barr

• Vikings 5.8 sack % was 22^nd in NFL in 2013. 
• Barr brings 10 plus sack potential to the table year 1.
• Somewhat raw, seems to be one-trick pony rushing the passer.
• Could start as hybrid DE in 4-3 base or take over as SAM LB. 

Expected Contract Total Value:  $13.79 Million

Signing Bonus: $8.35 Million

Detroit Lions

Eric Ebron

• Even after signing tight end Brandon Pettigrew to a 4-yr, $16 million extension, the Lions go tight end at 10.
• Former Saints QB coach, Joe Lombardi, is now OC in Detriot – could be looking to replicate Jimmy Graham role for Ebron.
• Ebron not a polished blocker - will most likely line up in the slot and surrender early down snaps to Pettigrew. 

Expected Contract Total Value:  $13.25 Million

Signing Bonus: $7.95 Million

On the Market: May 5th, 2014, Opening Night NBA Conference Semi-Finals

Tonight in the NBA: 

NBA PLAYOFFS:

Eastern Conference Semifinals, Game 1, Washington Wizards @ Indiana Pacers (-4).  7:10PM EST.

After a tough 7-game series in the opening round against Atlanta, Indiana is back at home for game 1 against a Wizards team who seemingly handled Chicago in round 1.  Washington is playing with full confidence and is clearly the team with less pressure in what is a “must-win” series for Frank Vogel and Co.  Whatever he says, his job is on the line.

 Washington matches up well with Indiana.  They have the bigs – Gortat, Nene, Booker - to compete with a rejuvenated Roy Hibbert and David West.  It will be interesting to see if Hibbert can parlay his game 7 line – 31 minutes, 13 points, 7 rebounds, 5 blocks – into round 2 success.  All the talk will surround the dynamic duo in the Wizards backcourt, John Wall and Bradley Beal, but whichever wing draws the Paul George assignment (most likely Trevor Ariza and Martell Webster) will play a huge role in the series.  The Pacers struggle to score when George is having an off night, making it a priority for Washington to limit his production. 

Compelling Stat:

The Pacers are 37-25 coming off 1 day of rest.   They are 19-1 on 2 or more days of rest. 

Game 1 Bet:

·      Both teams are extremely young, featuring multiple starters in their early to mid 20’s but Indy is the more experienced team having played in a Conference Championship just last year.  With that being said, Washington is just “naive” enough to undermine the importance of the moment at hand.  Washington could easily sneak out of gm. 1 with a W if Indy takes that deep sigh of relief after escaping a round 1 collapse. 

Series Bet:

·      The Wizards are getting some love from Vegas, coming in as a very slight underdog (+155) to win the series.  If these two were to play a series prior to the All-Star break you would have seen the Wizards at +500-600.  If you think Indy returns to their early to mid-season form, then you’re backing the Pacers (-175) in the series.  If you think they continue to look awful offensively and play anything like they did against Atlanta then you are loving a Wizards long-term series bet.  Washington is a much better team than Atlanta. 

Western Conference Semifinals, Game 1, LA Clippers @ OKC Thunder (-5).  9:40PM EST.

Chris Paul’s ailing hamstring is going to be a big topic of discussion throughout the series and that’s where we will start.  Paul is going to be responsible for matching up with Russell Westbrook and for anyone who has seen RW play for: 13 seconds knows just how difficult that can be.  Paul at less than 100% cannot keep up with Westbrook.  With teams like LA and OKC so evenly matched Scott Brooks will be looking to exploit CP3 if he appears hampered at all by the bum hammy. 

With Griffin/Paul, Durant/Westbrook expected to dominate the scoring for their respective teams we must look at the supplemental pieces to these squads.  Reggie Jackson and Caron Butler combined for 31 points in game 7 vs. Memphis and those two are really the only scorers OKC features after KD and Westbrook.  Ibaka’s scoring is going to take a back seat in a series where he will be focusing on guarding Blake Griffin (23.3 PPG in opening round).  The Clippers, after CP3 and Blake, rely on 3’s from sharpshooters J.J Reddick and Jamal Crawford.   Crawford has shown the ability in the past to tilt games in the Clippers favor with his streaky “heat check” type scoring.  Matt Barnes figures to see more than 30 minutes a game guarding KD unless Doc Rivers feels comfortable giving Danny Granger more burn off the bench.  Granger (6’9) poises the biggest threat to Durant’s game due to his size/length.  Rivers only gave Granger 10 minutes a night in the opening series versus Golden State.  DeAndre Jordan will be assigned to rim production duty; Durant and Westbrook are extremely aggressive attacking the rim, they will look to get Jordan in foul trouble early forcing them to go small with Blake at the 5 and Glen Davis at the 4. 

Compelling Stat: 

Thunder are (4-0) this post-season when Westbrook scores 27 points or fewer, (0-3) when he scores more than 27.

·      It’s no secret that sometimes RW takes too many shots and the numbers confirm that very notion.  Trying to convince Westbrook otherwise is the challenge Scott Brooks faces on a daily basis. 

Game 1 Bet: 

·      The Thunder faced a nightmare matchup in round 1 and on-paper the Clippers might be the better draw.  KD wont be bothered by Barnes/Granger like he was by Tony Allen in games 1-6 of round 1.  If Jackson and Butler build off their game 7 performances then the Thunder could run away early with a Game 1 victory.

Series Bet: 

·      At (+165), the Clippers are a bigger underdog than the aforementioned Washington Wizards are in their second round series with Indy.  Why?  Well because Vegas realizes OKC (-190) faced perhaps their toughest matchup in the opening round and a hampered Chris Paul spells disaster for LA.  Both teams have “championship or bust” mentalities but OKC ‘s is more realistic, given the match-ups. 

You can follow Bullish Sports on Twitter: @BullishSports1

Top 50 2013 PPR RBs: Part 3 - 21-25

When you get this low in the rankings every back, whether it's a usage/timeshare issue or history of injuries, has a serious red flag.  But the truth is, this is where leagues are won.  One of these backs will emerge as a fantasy #1 back.  Think 2009 Jones-Drew/Ray Rice, 2010 Foster or Stevan Ridley in 2012.  You don't win leagues by drafting AP first overall this year but by taking a shot on him in the 3rd round coming off ACL surgery in '12.  You'll find the value here: 

21.  Chris Ivory, NYJ - He's young enough (25) and fresh enough (256 career carries) to remove the injury prone tag.  5.1 YPC for his career is impressive but can he do it for a full season?  The Jets offensive line is severely underrated when it comes to run blocking.  They lost RG Brandon Moore but they added two above-average run blocking guards in Stephen Peterman and Willie Colon.  NY will obviously lean on the run with Geno Smith and Mark Sanchez under center.

22.  Lamar Miller, MIA - I have to give him credit for doing all the right things this off season.  Last year he was 3rd string behind Bush and Daniel Thomas because he didn't know the offense and couldn't pass block.  This spring he worked on his pass blocking, which he drew praise for from coach Philbin and Tannehill, as well as meeting regularly with fellow Miami alum Frank Gore.  The Fins offensive line isn't good, so be prepared for some down weeks.  He is VERY inexperienced (51 career carries) but his one cut running style fits with the Dolphins zone blocking scheme and his speed is off the charts.  The workload will be there and if the improved pass blocking is accurate, then the PPR friendly pass catching will make him a legit RB #2. 

 23.  DeMarco Murray, DAL -  Injuries.  They have plagued Murray since college and even when healthy last year he averaged 4.1 YPC.  His workload will be there because of the lack of viable options behind him and Garrett stated they plan to run the ball more this year, plan being the key word.  Keys to his success:  Staying healthy (obvious) and Garrett committing to the run.  The Cowboys run blocking is quite elite, grading out 7th overall in Pro Football Focus's 2012 ratings.  If he logs 225-250 carries he is a lock for top 12 production.  +++ pass catcher.

24.  Maurice Jones-Drew. JAX - Probably the hardest player to rank.  He suffered the dreaded Lisfranc fracture in 2012, plays for the rebuilding Jacksonville Jaguars and the Gabbert/Henne Qb situation is arguably the worst in the NFL.  Making things worse, backup RB Justin Forsett is a pretty solid NFL back.  I however am seeing somewhat of a silver lining in his early departure last season.  When the '13 season gets underway in September he will have about 10 months of rest from the time of the injury leaving him somewhat "fresh".  New coach Gus Bradley, former Seattle DC, will implement run first offense and you could argue the Jags have a top LT/RT combo in Eugene Monroe and Luke Joeckel.  His ability to catch passes (46.3 per season 2006-2011) is exactly what will keep him fantasy relevant week to week.  He's still only 28.

25.  Ryan Matthews, SD - I could spell out the reasons why the Chargers offensive line is much better than last years but this article written by SB Nation's Richard Wade says it 10x better than I could.  The line improvement is the #1 reason why I have Matthews in my top 25 despite being the biggest bust of 2012.  His 2011 line: 14 games, 1,546 total yards, 4.9 YPC, 50 recptions, 6 tds.  Those are monster numbers and if his offensive line can block for him this year I can see him getting back to similar '11 numbers.  Woodhead and Ronnie Brown will handle some 3rd down duties but Matthews is the far superior talented back.  If he gets his confidence back he'll be back in there on passing downs.  I'm buying him.   
  

Randall Cobb : The Human Swiss Army Knife

When looking at the most recent ADP reports I became fascinated in where Packers wide receiver Randall Cobb was being drafted in leagues.  The most recent report has him going in the 3rd round at  30th overall and the 8th wide receiver off the board.  Behind the likes of Calvin, Green, Dez, Marshall, Julio, D. Thomas, Roddy and Larry Fitz and just before guys like Harvin, Andre Johnson, Cruz, V Jax and Welker.  I decided to investigate the appropriateness of his ADP.  Cobb was extremely impressive in '13.  As a second year wide out in a severely crowded receiving core (Jennings, Jordy Nelson, James Jones, Driver, Finley), Cobb forced the Packers to keep him on the field as he racked up 80 catches on 104 targets.  I recently watched a week 11 matchup between GB and Detroit, a game in which Cobb terrorized the Lions for 72 yards on 9 receptions (including a 22 yard GW Td) while adding 19 yards via the rush.  I tracked and recorded each of his touches and where he was lined up for each one of them:

Touch #	Formation	Lined up	Result
1	Shotgun	Left HB	Rec - 5 Yards
2	Shotgun	Left HB	Rush - 4 Yards
3	Shotgun	Left Inside Slot	Rec- 9 Yards
4	Shotgun	Right Slot	Rec - 4 Yards
5	Shotgun	Right HB	Rec - 3 Yards
6	Shotgun	Right Slot	Rec - 7 Yards
7	Shotgun	Right Slot	Rec - 11 Yards
8	Shotgun	Right Slot	Rec - 10 Yards
9	Singleback	HB	Rush - 15 yards
10	Shotgun	Left Slot	Rec - 3 Yards
11	Shotgun	Left Slot	Rec - 22 Yard TD

It was obvious from the get-go that Rodgers prefers to get the ball to Cobb quickly off the line allowing him to get into open space and eat up valuable yards fast and efficiently.  Most of Cobb's receptions came within 5-6 yards from the line of scrimmage and he routinely showed the ability to find the first down marker.  His one down the field reception came on a 4th quarter fade route in which Rodgers lofted it to the back of the end zone and Cobb did the rest, fighting off corner cover and safety help for the game winning touch down.  Despite his small frame (5'10", 192) he doesn't shy away from contact and more than once ran over defenders for the extra yard, very similar to the way Percy Harvin (5'11, 184) plays.  The Packers, as evidence from the data above, know that Cobb is best when he is moved all across the formation finding the match ups he can abuse.  Safeties and slot corners simply cannot guard him and Rodgers knows it.  The most impressive play, however, didn't come in the air but rather on the ground.  With just under 2:00 minutes remaining in the 3rd quarter Cobb lined up as the lone half back in a singleback formation.  On an outside toss to the left, Cobb followed his left guard and tackle (who pulled BEAUTIFULLY) looking like a seasoned running back on his way to a 15 yard gain and a Packer first down.  His multifaceted repertoire was on full display.  Look for OC Tom Clements to increase Cobb's usage in '13.

From a fantasy perspective I think Cobb is currently undervalued, especially in PPR formats.  Owners who fear Jones and Nelson will steal from Cobb's production need to realize the difference in the former and latter's game.  With Jermichael Finley doing his best to lose Rodger's trust, Cobb has taken advantage and is the clear #1 target in the middle of the field while Nelson and Jones handle outside duties.  If the Packers ultimately decide to remove Cobb from return duties he can focus on becoming the best receiver possible, working with the most elite QB in the NFL.  I'm buying him for 90-95 catches and 1000+ yards.  The only wide receivers I'm taking over Randall Cobb are Megatron, Dez, Julio and Green. 

Top 50 2013 PPR RBs: Part Two

Wednesday we looked at the top 10 running backs for 2013 in the PPR format.  Today I'll evaluate the backs who rank from 11-20.  No tiers this time:


11.  Stevan Ridley, NE - Severely underrated due to big names in New England.  Elite offensive line and 300+ carries a strong possibility.  Sees a ton of nickel defense thanks to Brady.  His single digit reception totals keep his upside capped.

12.  Reggie Bush, DET - I'm interested to see how Detroit uses him on early downs.  If he gets 200 carries I think he flirts with top 8-10.  If its more like 150 then he fits in with top 12 status.  His potential to lead all backs in receptions keeps his floor high.

13.  David Wilson, NYG - Fumbling issues are blown out of proportion due to Coughlin's no nonsense policy (1 fumble lost in '12).  Monster talent with retooled offensive line, looks like Giants want him to be workhorse.  Evan Silva stated in June that the Giants will lean on run more this year to hide "shaky" defense; I think that is a very important idea to consider. 

14.  Alfred Morris, WAS - I wasn't high on him until I watched his game tape from last year; he certainly is the real deal.  The BIG question mark with Alf is, Does he suffer from a potential RG3 injury?  Small sample size, but he only averaged 3.2 YPC (4.8 in '12) week 15 when Cousins started.  Similar to Ridley in he is NOT involved in passing game.

15.  Darren Sproles, NO - It's hard to say a guy who is ranked in the top 15 is overlooked but he is because his lack of involvement in the running game.  Sproles was not as involved last year, maybe because of interim coach Pete Carmichael, but Payton is back.  Look for 80 + catches.

16.  Frank Gore, SF - The next two guys are the "old men" of the group and I'll give Gore the edge over Jackson because he plays behind one of the NFL's most premier offensive lines (especially at run blocking).  He will be even more important to this offense with no Crabtree. 

17.  Steven Jackson, ATL - Maybe I'm being a little harsh on S-Jax here but he is 29 and I believe a lot of his value is tied to goal line tds.  Atlanta does not have a great run blocking O-line (24th in '12) and Julio, Roddy and Tony G are the initial options for pass catching in this offense.  Not to mention Jaquizz Rodgers will handle some third down snaps.

18.  Chris Johnson, TEN - I think he has a big opportunity to bounce back this year.  The Titans offensive line was terrible last year but he still managed to finish 13th in PPR plus 4.6 YPC.  Enter Guard Andy Levitre (FA) and Alabama stud Guard Chance Warmack (draft) and this line isn't looking so bad anymore.  Shonn Greene is NOT a threat.  

19.  Darren McFadden, OAK - There is literally not a single reason to believe this guy will play a full season but his talent + usage is so immense that he stays in the top 20.  A Reason to be hopeful; Zone blocking scheme gone, Power Blocking scheme installed (fits his style much better).  He is the model 3rd/4th round pick for the savy upside type fantasy owner.

20.  Giovani Bernard, CIN - I'm buying him.  Benjarvus Green-Ellis is not good as evidence of his 3.8 YPC over the past 2 seasons, which is even worse considering Cincy's plus run blocking line.  I think teams have realized there is no reason to hold "back" rookie running backs (Doug Martin, Alfred Morris). I LOVE Bernard's talent (pass catching ability) and he is in a great position to take over the Bengals backfield by week 3.  Biggest upside of any back from 11-20.   

Jamaal Charles and Why He's The #2 Pick

YEAR	PLAYER	RECEPTIONS	GAMES PLAYED
2012	McCoy	54	12
2011	McCoy	48	15
2010	McCoy	78	15

Above are Lesean McCoy's receptions for the past 3 years under Andy Reid.  Reid, now in Kansas City, figures to include feature back Jamaal Charles in the passing game more ofter than the likes of Romeo Crennel and Todd Haley.  McCoy averaged 60 receptions over 14 games per season in those 3 years, demonstrating Reid's desire to utilize his best offensive weapon any way he can.  Charles, who's caught an average of 40 balls over his three full seasons in the NFL, is unquestionably the Chiefs top offensive option.  There is no reason why Charles can't achieve a career high in receptions in '13.

  

The Dual RB System: For Better or Worse?

It seems today the majority of NFL coaches have bought into the dual running back system, mostly stating, "It takes multiple backs to win in this league."  They may be on to something.  Dating back to the 2000 Superbowl, 10 of the last 13 SB champs have had 2 Rbs with 100 + carries during regular season play.  Two of the exceptions came courtesy of the New England Patriots (2001, 2004).  Leave it to Belichick to make the exception to the rule.

Year	SB Champ	Lead Rusher	2nd Lead
2012	Ravens	Rice - 257	Pierce - 108
2011	Giants	Bradshaw - 171	Jacobs - 152
2010	Packers	Brandon Jackson - 190	Kuhn - 84
2009	Saints	Mike Bell - 172	Pierre Thomas - 147
2008	Steelers	Willie Parker - 210	Moore - 140
2007	Giants	Jacobs - 202	Derrick Ward - 125
2006	Colts	Joe Addai - 226	Rhodes - 187
2005	Steelers	Parker - 225	Bettis - 110
2004	Pats	Corey Dillon - 345	Kevin Faulk - 45
2003	Pats	Antowain Smith - 182	Kevin Faulk - 178
2002	Bucs	Michael Pittman - 204	Mike Alstott - 146
2001	Pats	Antowain Smith - 281	Marc Edwards - 51
2000	Ravens	Jamal Lewis - 309	Priest Holmes - 137