Top 50 2013 PPR RBs: Part 3 - 21-25

When you get this low in the rankings every back, whether it's a usage/timeshare issue or history of injuries, has a serious red flag.  But the truth is, this is where leagues are won.  One of these backs will emerge as a fantasy #1 back.  Think 2009 Jones-Drew/Ray Rice, 2010 Foster or Stevan Ridley in 2012.  You don't win leagues by drafting AP first overall this year but by taking a shot on him in the 3rd round coming off ACL surgery in '12.  You'll find the value here: 

21.  Chris Ivory, NYJ - He's young enough (25) and fresh enough (256 career carries) to remove the injury prone tag.  5.1 YPC for his career is impressive but can he do it for a full season?  The Jets offensive line is severely underrated when it comes to run blocking.  They lost RG Brandon Moore but they added two above-average run blocking guards in Stephen Peterman and Willie Colon.  NY will obviously lean on the run with Geno Smith and Mark Sanchez under center.

22.  Lamar Miller, MIA - I have to give him credit for doing all the right things this off season.  Last year he was 3rd string behind Bush and Daniel Thomas because he didn't know the offense and couldn't pass block.  This spring he worked on his pass blocking, which he drew praise for from coach Philbin and Tannehill, as well as meeting regularly with fellow Miami alum Frank Gore.  The Fins offensive line isn't good, so be prepared for some down weeks.  He is VERY inexperienced (51 career carries) but his one cut running style fits with the Dolphins zone blocking scheme and his speed is off the charts.  The workload will be there and if the improved pass blocking is accurate, then the PPR friendly pass catching will make him a legit RB #2. 

 23.  DeMarco Murray, DAL -  Injuries.  They have plagued Murray since college and even when healthy last year he averaged 4.1 YPC.  His workload will be there because of the lack of viable options behind him and Garrett stated they plan to run the ball more this year, plan being the key word.  Keys to his success:  Staying healthy (obvious) and Garrett committing to the run.  The Cowboys run blocking is quite elite, grading out 7th overall in Pro Football Focus's 2012 ratings.  If he logs 225-250 carries he is a lock for top 12 production.  +++ pass catcher.

24.  Maurice Jones-Drew. JAX - Probably the hardest player to rank.  He suffered the dreaded Lisfranc fracture in 2012, plays for the rebuilding Jacksonville Jaguars and the Gabbert/Henne Qb situation is arguably the worst in the NFL.  Making things worse, backup RB Justin Forsett is a pretty solid NFL back.  I however am seeing somewhat of a silver lining in his early departure last season.  When the '13 season gets underway in September he will have about 10 months of rest from the time of the injury leaving him somewhat "fresh".  New coach Gus Bradley, former Seattle DC, will implement run first offense and you could argue the Jags have a top LT/RT combo in Eugene Monroe and Luke Joeckel.  His ability to catch passes (46.3 per season 2006-2011) is exactly what will keep him fantasy relevant week to week.  He's still only 28.

25.  Ryan Matthews, SD - I could spell out the reasons why the Chargers offensive line is much better than last years but this article written by SB Nation's Richard Wade says it 10x better than I could.  The line improvement is the #1 reason why I have Matthews in my top 25 despite being the biggest bust of 2012.  His 2011 line: 14 games, 1,546 total yards, 4.9 YPC, 50 recptions, 6 tds.  Those are monster numbers and if his offensive line can block for him this year I can see him getting back to similar '11 numbers.  Woodhead and Ronnie Brown will handle some 3rd down duties but Matthews is the far superior talented back.  If he gets his confidence back he'll be back in there on passing downs.  I'm buying him.   
  

Randall Cobb : The Human Swiss Army Knife

When looking at the most recent ADP reports I became fascinated in where Packers wide receiver Randall Cobb was being drafted in leagues.  The most recent report has him going in the 3rd round at  30th overall and the 8th wide receiver off the board.  Behind the likes of Calvin, Green, Dez, Marshall, Julio, D. Thomas, Roddy and Larry Fitz and just before guys like Harvin, Andre Johnson, Cruz, V Jax and Welker.  I decided to investigate the appropriateness of his ADP.  Cobb was extremely impressive in '13.  As a second year wide out in a severely crowded receiving core (Jennings, Jordy Nelson, James Jones, Driver, Finley), Cobb forced the Packers to keep him on the field as he racked up 80 catches on 104 targets.  I recently watched a week 11 matchup between GB and Detroit, a game in which Cobb terrorized the Lions for 72 yards on 9 receptions (including a 22 yard GW Td) while adding 19 yards via the rush.  I tracked and recorded each of his touches and where he was lined up for each one of them:

Touch #	Formation	Lined up	Result
1	Shotgun	Left HB	Rec - 5 Yards
2	Shotgun	Left HB	Rush - 4 Yards
3	Shotgun	Left Inside Slot	Rec- 9 Yards
4	Shotgun	Right Slot	Rec - 4 Yards
5	Shotgun	Right HB	Rec - 3 Yards
6	Shotgun	Right Slot	Rec - 7 Yards
7	Shotgun	Right Slot	Rec - 11 Yards
8	Shotgun	Right Slot	Rec - 10 Yards
9	Singleback	HB	Rush - 15 yards
10	Shotgun	Left Slot	Rec - 3 Yards
11	Shotgun	Left Slot	Rec - 22 Yard TD

It was obvious from the get-go that Rodgers prefers to get the ball to Cobb quickly off the line allowing him to get into open space and eat up valuable yards fast and efficiently.  Most of Cobb's receptions came within 5-6 yards from the line of scrimmage and he routinely showed the ability to find the first down marker.  His one down the field reception came on a 4th quarter fade route in which Rodgers lofted it to the back of the end zone and Cobb did the rest, fighting off corner cover and safety help for the game winning touch down.  Despite his small frame (5'10", 192) he doesn't shy away from contact and more than once ran over defenders for the extra yard, very similar to the way Percy Harvin (5'11, 184) plays.  The Packers, as evidence from the data above, know that Cobb is best when he is moved all across the formation finding the match ups he can abuse.  Safeties and slot corners simply cannot guard him and Rodgers knows it.  The most impressive play, however, didn't come in the air but rather on the ground.  With just under 2:00 minutes remaining in the 3rd quarter Cobb lined up as the lone half back in a singleback formation.  On an outside toss to the left, Cobb followed his left guard and tackle (who pulled BEAUTIFULLY) looking like a seasoned running back on his way to a 15 yard gain and a Packer first down.  His multifaceted repertoire was on full display.  Look for OC Tom Clements to increase Cobb's usage in '13.

From a fantasy perspective I think Cobb is currently undervalued, especially in PPR formats.  Owners who fear Jones and Nelson will steal from Cobb's production need to realize the difference in the former and latter's game.  With Jermichael Finley doing his best to lose Rodger's trust, Cobb has taken advantage and is the clear #1 target in the middle of the field while Nelson and Jones handle outside duties.  If the Packers ultimately decide to remove Cobb from return duties he can focus on becoming the best receiver possible, working with the most elite QB in the NFL.  I'm buying him for 90-95 catches and 1000+ yards.  The only wide receivers I'm taking over Randall Cobb are Megatron, Dez, Julio and Green. 

Top 50 2013 PPR RBs: Part Two

Wednesday we looked at the top 10 running backs for 2013 in the PPR format.  Today I'll evaluate the backs who rank from 11-20.  No tiers this time:


11.  Stevan Ridley, NE - Severely underrated due to big names in New England.  Elite offensive line and 300+ carries a strong possibility.  Sees a ton of nickel defense thanks to Brady.  His single digit reception totals keep his upside capped.

12.  Reggie Bush, DET - I'm interested to see how Detroit uses him on early downs.  If he gets 200 carries I think he flirts with top 8-10.  If its more like 150 then he fits in with top 12 status.  His potential to lead all backs in receptions keeps his floor high.

13.  David Wilson, NYG - Fumbling issues are blown out of proportion due to Coughlin's no nonsense policy (1 fumble lost in '12).  Monster talent with retooled offensive line, looks like Giants want him to be workhorse.  Evan Silva stated in June that the Giants will lean on run more this year to hide "shaky" defense; I think that is a very important idea to consider. 

14.  Alfred Morris, WAS - I wasn't high on him until I watched his game tape from last year; he certainly is the real deal.  The BIG question mark with Alf is, Does he suffer from a potential RG3 injury?  Small sample size, but he only averaged 3.2 YPC (4.8 in '12) week 15 when Cousins started.  Similar to Ridley in he is NOT involved in passing game.

15.  Darren Sproles, NO - It's hard to say a guy who is ranked in the top 15 is overlooked but he is because his lack of involvement in the running game.  Sproles was not as involved last year, maybe because of interim coach Pete Carmichael, but Payton is back.  Look for 80 + catches.

16.  Frank Gore, SF - The next two guys are the "old men" of the group and I'll give Gore the edge over Jackson because he plays behind one of the NFL's most premier offensive lines (especially at run blocking).  He will be even more important to this offense with no Crabtree. 

17.  Steven Jackson, ATL - Maybe I'm being a little harsh on S-Jax here but he is 29 and I believe a lot of his value is tied to goal line tds.  Atlanta does not have a great run blocking O-line (24th in '12) and Julio, Roddy and Tony G are the initial options for pass catching in this offense.  Not to mention Jaquizz Rodgers will handle some third down snaps.

18.  Chris Johnson, TEN - I think he has a big opportunity to bounce back this year.  The Titans offensive line was terrible last year but he still managed to finish 13th in PPR plus 4.6 YPC.  Enter Guard Andy Levitre (FA) and Alabama stud Guard Chance Warmack (draft) and this line isn't looking so bad anymore.  Shonn Greene is NOT a threat.  

19.  Darren McFadden, OAK - There is literally not a single reason to believe this guy will play a full season but his talent + usage is so immense that he stays in the top 20.  A Reason to be hopeful; Zone blocking scheme gone, Power Blocking scheme installed (fits his style much better).  He is the model 3rd/4th round pick for the savy upside type fantasy owner.

20.  Giovani Bernard, CIN - I'm buying him.  Benjarvus Green-Ellis is not good as evidence of his 3.8 YPC over the past 2 seasons, which is even worse considering Cincy's plus run blocking line.  I think teams have realized there is no reason to hold "back" rookie running backs (Doug Martin, Alfred Morris). I LOVE Bernard's talent (pass catching ability) and he is in a great position to take over the Bengals backfield by week 3.  Biggest upside of any back from 11-20.   

Jamaal Charles and Why He's The #2 Pick

YEAR	PLAYER	RECEPTIONS	GAMES PLAYED
2012	McCoy	54	12
2011	McCoy	48	15
2010	McCoy	78	15

Above are Lesean McCoy's receptions for the past 3 years under Andy Reid.  Reid, now in Kansas City, figures to include feature back Jamaal Charles in the passing game more ofter than the likes of Romeo Crennel and Todd Haley.  McCoy averaged 60 receptions over 14 games per season in those 3 years, demonstrating Reid's desire to utilize his best offensive weapon any way he can.  Charles, who's caught an average of 40 balls over his three full seasons in the NFL, is unquestionably the Chiefs top offensive option.  There is no reason why Charles can't achieve a career high in receptions in '13.

  

The Dual RB System: For Better or Worse?

It seems today the majority of NFL coaches have bought into the dual running back system, mostly stating, "It takes multiple backs to win in this league."  They may be on to something.  Dating back to the 2000 Superbowl, 10 of the last 13 SB champs have had 2 Rbs with 100 + carries during regular season play.  Two of the exceptions came courtesy of the New England Patriots (2001, 2004).  Leave it to Belichick to make the exception to the rule.

Year	SB Champ	Lead Rusher	2nd Lead
2012	Ravens	Rice - 257	Pierce - 108
2011	Giants	Bradshaw - 171	Jacobs - 152
2010	Packers	Brandon Jackson - 190	Kuhn - 84
2009	Saints	Mike Bell - 172	Pierre Thomas - 147
2008	Steelers	Willie Parker - 210	Moore - 140
2007	Giants	Jacobs - 202	Derrick Ward - 125
2006	Colts	Joe Addai - 226	Rhodes - 187
2005	Steelers	Parker - 225	Bettis - 110
2004	Pats	Corey Dillon - 345	Kevin Faulk - 45
2003	Pats	Antowain Smith - 182	Kevin Faulk - 178
2002	Bucs	Michael Pittman - 204	Mike Alstott - 146
2001	Pats	Antowain Smith - 281	Marc Edwards - 51
2000	Ravens	Jamal Lewis - 309	Priest Holmes - 137

2013 Top 50 PPR RBs Part 1

For the remainder of the week I will break down the Top 50 ranked PPR running backs for 2013.  Here is the top 10 broken down into 3 tiers:

TIER 1

1.  Adrian Peterson, MIN - Even with regression in line, still #1. Keep it simple stupid.

2.  Jamaal Charles, KC - It's all about his usage.  Back up RB is Knile Davis.

3.  Doug Martin, TB - Nothing more important then getting back 2 starting guards (Carl Nicks and Davin Joseph)

 TIER 2

4.  Trent Richardson, CLE - 99.999999999 percent of RBs have injury history or some sort of red flag.  He's progressing as expected, plays behind ELITE offensive line.  Norval Effect ++++ 

5.  C.J. Spiller, BUF - Type of guy who wins you weeks.  Only a handful of backs can say that.

6.  Arian Foster, HOU - Final 3 games of 2012 (Wk 16, Wildcard and Divisional Round) 70 carries, 326 yards, 4.66 ypc, 3 tds, 17 receptions, 1 rec. td.  Not sure why EVERYONE thinks he broke down.

 7.  Ray Rice, BAL - It's hard to say Rice has peaked at 26.  Pierce should only keep him fresh for the stretch run and Ray Ray should still dominate on passing downs.

 TIER 3

8.  Lesean McCoy, PHI - Concussion issues behind him and addition of Chip Kelly bode well for "Shady".  He'll get his 250+ carries, depends on what he does with them. 

9.  Matt Forte, CHI - Trestman loves to throw and apparently wants Forte catching more balls = music to the ears of PPR owners.  

10.  Marshawn Lynch, SEA - His DUI trial is pushed back until late December killing all suspension rumors.  275+ carries and double digit Tds lock him into the top 10.  Harvin will only help.

Lebron and Duncan

Lebron James has scored a combined 35 points in game 1 and game 2 of the NBA Finals

           

That is his lowest scoring output in back to back games since March 10-12^th

                 

The last time Lebron failed to score more than 35 points combined in back to back playoff games was Game 4 and 5 of the 2010-2011 series VS Dallas (25 points)

Tim Duncan shot 3 of 13 (23.1%) from the field in Game 2 last night finishing with 9 points

            Duncan hasn’t shot under 30% from the field since 12/15/12 vs the Celtics (2 of 13, 15.4%)

This marks the 7^th time that Duncan has failed to score double digits this season.  One would expect the Spurs to not fair well in those games, wrong.  Including last night, the Spurs are 6-1 when Duncan scores under 10 points. 

5 For Thought : WAR Special

Entering 2013, Domonic Brown had hit 12 home runs in 147 games with the Phillies.

He has hit 8 home runs in his last 9 games.

Chris Davis had a WAR of 1.8 for the month of May (113 PA).

            In 2012 his WAR was 2.0 (562 PA).

In 1971 Tom Seaver finished the year with a 9.8 WAR over 35 games started (0.28 WAR per start), which is the highest single season WAR number ever recorded by a Mets pitcher in their history.

            In 12 starts this year, Matt Harvey has a WAR of 2.7 (0.23 WAR per start).

Carlos Gomez currently has a WAR of 3.4 (career high mark) thru 53 games this year.

            His previous career high WAR was a 3.2 in 2012 over 137 games.

Bartolo Colon has 42 K’s in 70.1 innings pitched this year.

            Aroldis Chapman has 43 K’s in 25 innings pitched this year.

"Hey Brothers" - Closer Help

Usually around this point of the Fantasy Baseball season teams are being to settle in and owners are becoming more aware of their strengths and weaknesses.  Sometimes those very weaknesses induce us to trade away ample valuable assets in order to correct them leaving us weaker in other areas.  The 1 position I don’t believe in EVER trading for closers.  The volatility of the bullpen these days makes predicting saves a crapshoot in about 40-50% of MLB bullpens.  However saves is still a category and must be addressed via waiver wire if you see yourself in need of a closer (3 is usually the magic number in standard leagues).  Here is a guy in the  current set up men role poised to have a shot at closing for his respective team this year:

Rex Brothers:

Now that’s a prototypical closer name right there.  Rex has been downright dominant this year and is showing no signs of slowing down.  Controlling the 8^th inning for the early surprise of the year Colorado Rockies, Brothers has been knocking on Rafael Betancourt’s door for about a year now but to no avail.  One may look at Betancourt’s low ERA and high save count and see steady waters ahead but there is one number that should have owners and Rockies fans alike nervous.  4.15 BB/9.  That number is simply unsustainable and once the ball starts to fly out of Coors Field against Raffey (he has yet to give up a HR this year) his ERA will balloon and Colorado will have no choice but to turn to their stud set up man Rex Brothers.  Take a shot on him now and you could be paid big dividends in the not so distant future, "Hey Brother".

Quick Reaction : Pacers over Knicks

Top 5 reasons for Knicks series loss at the hands of the Pacers

Tyson Chandler’s absolute inability to match up with Roy Hibbert.  Hibbert dominated from start to finish in this series, whether it was on the boards or reeling Tyson Chandler into stupid fouls.  It looked almost as if Chandler completely forgot how to box out at times, using strictly his upper body in an attempt to shield Hibbert from the ball, this was to no avail.

Melo’s poor 4^th quarter performances.  His 30-point outbursts will be long forgotten due to his ineptitude in the late game.  His critics will point to his lack of success in the playoffs when he hangs them up, can you blame them?

J.R. Smith.  Do I have to say anymore?  Ice cold.  His days with the Knicks are over.  Will Knick fans miss him?  Only time will tell. 

Mike Woodson’s lack of adjustment.  I didn’t like the way the Knicks attacked Hibbert/West at all.  The double teams freed up the likes of Lance Stephenson and D.J Augustin to get hot.  Those two played a huge role in the game 1 and 6 wins.  I think Woodson loses his job before months end.  I won’t be able to make an opinion on that decision until a replacement is announced.

The better team won.  Simple and plain the Pacers were the better team.  Knicks were outcoached and outplayed from start to finish.  I have to admit I didn’t know much about Frank Vogel before this series; I left game 6 VERY impressed.  He has a bright future.