2014 NFL Draft: Top 10 Recap w/ Contract Situations

Expected contract totals are courtesy of overthecap.com.  All 1^st round contracts are over the course of 4 years. 

Houston Texans: 

Jadeveon Clowney

• After weeks and weeks of rumors that had Houston trading out of the no. 1 spot, ultimately they decide to stay home and take Clowney. 
• In Romeo Crennel’s 3-4 base defense, he will inherit a rush linebacker role early on, perhaps even on the same side as JJ Watt. 
• Brooks Reed and Whitney Mercilus – the incumbent OLB’s – will battle it out for the other spot. 

Expected Contract Total Value:  $24.27 Million

Signing Bonus: $15.97 Million

St. Louis Rams:

Greg Robinson

• No surprises at the top 2 spots. 
• The Rams grab a mauling run blocker who could play both LT/RT in 2014. 
• Jake Long’s return from a torn ACL/MCL (suffered in December) will eventually determine Robinson’s short-term position.
• He projects as the future at left tackle. 

Expected Contract Total Value:  $23.19 Million

Signing Bonus:  $15.18 Million

Jacksonville Jaguars:

Blake Bortles: 

• First surprise of the night. 
• GM David Caldwell gets his franchise QB and can finally put the Chad Henne/Blaine Gabbert era behind him and his fan base. 
• It could be argued that Bortles would still be on the board heading into day 2 but you never know where Cleveland or Minnesota had him on their wish lists. 
• Jacksonville needs to surround this kid with talent – Cecil Shorts and Ace Sanders are JAX’s projected starting WRs. 

Expected Contract Total Value:  $22.49 Million

Signing Bonus:  $14.68 Million

Buffalo Bills: (traded with Cleveland)

Sammy Watkins:

• Cleveland gets a 2015 1^st and 5^th rounder plus the Bills 2014 1^st round pick (no. 9 overall) in exchange for the 4^th pick. 
• The Bills spent a 2^nd and 3^rd round pick in ’13 on receivers Robert Woods and Marquise Goodwin respectively so this one comes as a surprise to me. 
• With that being said, the Bills were 29^th in yards after the catch last year so Watkins specialty will be put to good use. 
• Stevie Johnson could have played his last game as a Bill.

Expected Contract Total Value:  $21.7 Million

Signing Bonus:  $14.1 Million

Oakland Raiders:

Khalil Mack

• At 5, and with a ton of needs, the Raiders stay true to their board and take the best player available in Mack. 
• Mack will compete with Kevin Burnett for the weak-side linebacker role in the 4-3 base D. 
• Sio Moore operates on the strong side. 

Expected Contract Total Value:  $20.32 Million

Signing Bonus: $13.1 Million

Atlanta Falcons:

Jake Matthews: 

• Falcons “most likely” would have preferred to get their hands on Mack or Robinson but Matthews is a fine consolation prize. 
• His versatility across the offensive line suits the Falcons well giving them multiple options with the young tackle. 
• The best bet is Matthews will push Lamar Holmes (struggled mightily in ’13) for the starting RT spot in ’14.

Expected Contract Total Value:  $17.85 Million
Signing Bonus: $11.3 Million

Tampa Bay Bucs:

Mike Evans

• Bucs now have a dynamic double-threat on the outside with V-Jax and Evans (both 6 foot 5 inches) and a decent tight end in Brandon Myers for Josh McCown to work with. 
• Don’t be surprised if the Bucs go WR again this weekend; they don’t have a legit no. 3 receiver on this roster. 

Expected Contract Total Value:  $15.87 Million

Signing Bonus: $9.86 Million

Cleveland Browns:  (traded with Minnesota) 

Justin Gilbert

• MIN moves from no. 8 to no. 9 spot.
• Minnesota receives a 2014 5^th round pick from Cleveland. 
• No. 2 corner spot, opposite of Joe Haden, was huge need for Browns.
• Gilbert most athletic corner in draft but not a finished product. 
• Should benefit from working with HC Mike Pettine, who has coached some of the better corners in the NFL – Revis. Antonio Cromartie, Stephon Gilmore, Leodis McKelvin. 
• Should be no. 2 corner on opening day.

Expected Contract Total Value:  $13.89 Million

Signing Bonus: $8.42 Million

Minnesota Vikings

Anthony Barr

• Vikings 5.8 sack % was 22^nd in NFL in 2013. 
• Barr brings 10 plus sack potential to the table year 1.
• Somewhat raw, seems to be one-trick pony rushing the passer.
• Could start as hybrid DE in 4-3 base or take over as SAM LB. 

Expected Contract Total Value:  $13.79 Million

Signing Bonus: $8.35 Million

Detroit Lions

Eric Ebron

• Even after signing tight end Brandon Pettigrew to a 4-yr, $16 million extension, the Lions go tight end at 10.
• Former Saints QB coach, Joe Lombardi, is now OC in Detriot – could be looking to replicate Jimmy Graham role for Ebron.
• Ebron not a polished blocker - will most likely line up in the slot and surrender early down snaps to Pettigrew. 

Expected Contract Total Value:  $13.25 Million

Signing Bonus: $7.95 Million

On the Market: May 5th, 2014, Opening Night NBA Conference Semi-Finals

Tonight in the NBA: 

NBA PLAYOFFS:

Eastern Conference Semifinals, Game 1, Washington Wizards @ Indiana Pacers (-4).  7:10PM EST.

After a tough 7-game series in the opening round against Atlanta, Indiana is back at home for game 1 against a Wizards team who seemingly handled Chicago in round 1.  Washington is playing with full confidence and is clearly the team with less pressure in what is a “must-win” series for Frank Vogel and Co.  Whatever he says, his job is on the line.

 Washington matches up well with Indiana.  They have the bigs – Gortat, Nene, Booker - to compete with a rejuvenated Roy Hibbert and David West.  It will be interesting to see if Hibbert can parlay his game 7 line – 31 minutes, 13 points, 7 rebounds, 5 blocks – into round 2 success.  All the talk will surround the dynamic duo in the Wizards backcourt, John Wall and Bradley Beal, but whichever wing draws the Paul George assignment (most likely Trevor Ariza and Martell Webster) will play a huge role in the series.  The Pacers struggle to score when George is having an off night, making it a priority for Washington to limit his production. 

Compelling Stat:

The Pacers are 37-25 coming off 1 day of rest.   They are 19-1 on 2 or more days of rest. 

Game 1 Bet:

·      Both teams are extremely young, featuring multiple starters in their early to mid 20’s but Indy is the more experienced team having played in a Conference Championship just last year.  With that being said, Washington is just “naive” enough to undermine the importance of the moment at hand.  Washington could easily sneak out of gm. 1 with a W if Indy takes that deep sigh of relief after escaping a round 1 collapse. 

Series Bet:

·      The Wizards are getting some love from Vegas, coming in as a very slight underdog (+155) to win the series.  If these two were to play a series prior to the All-Star break you would have seen the Wizards at +500-600.  If you think Indy returns to their early to mid-season form, then you’re backing the Pacers (-175) in the series.  If you think they continue to look awful offensively and play anything like they did against Atlanta then you are loving a Wizards long-term series bet.  Washington is a much better team than Atlanta. 

Western Conference Semifinals, Game 1, LA Clippers @ OKC Thunder (-5).  9:40PM EST.

Chris Paul’s ailing hamstring is going to be a big topic of discussion throughout the series and that’s where we will start.  Paul is going to be responsible for matching up with Russell Westbrook and for anyone who has seen RW play for: 13 seconds knows just how difficult that can be.  Paul at less than 100% cannot keep up with Westbrook.  With teams like LA and OKC so evenly matched Scott Brooks will be looking to exploit CP3 if he appears hampered at all by the bum hammy. 

With Griffin/Paul, Durant/Westbrook expected to dominate the scoring for their respective teams we must look at the supplemental pieces to these squads.  Reggie Jackson and Caron Butler combined for 31 points in game 7 vs. Memphis and those two are really the only scorers OKC features after KD and Westbrook.  Ibaka’s scoring is going to take a back seat in a series where he will be focusing on guarding Blake Griffin (23.3 PPG in opening round).  The Clippers, after CP3 and Blake, rely on 3’s from sharpshooters J.J Reddick and Jamal Crawford.   Crawford has shown the ability in the past to tilt games in the Clippers favor with his streaky “heat check” type scoring.  Matt Barnes figures to see more than 30 minutes a game guarding KD unless Doc Rivers feels comfortable giving Danny Granger more burn off the bench.  Granger (6’9) poises the biggest threat to Durant’s game due to his size/length.  Rivers only gave Granger 10 minutes a night in the opening series versus Golden State.  DeAndre Jordan will be assigned to rim production duty; Durant and Westbrook are extremely aggressive attacking the rim, they will look to get Jordan in foul trouble early forcing them to go small with Blake at the 5 and Glen Davis at the 4. 

Compelling Stat: 

Thunder are (4-0) this post-season when Westbrook scores 27 points or fewer, (0-3) when he scores more than 27.

·      It’s no secret that sometimes RW takes too many shots and the numbers confirm that very notion.  Trying to convince Westbrook otherwise is the challenge Scott Brooks faces on a daily basis. 

Game 1 Bet: 

·      The Thunder faced a nightmare matchup in round 1 and on-paper the Clippers might be the better draw.  KD wont be bothered by Barnes/Granger like he was by Tony Allen in games 1-6 of round 1.  If Jackson and Butler build off their game 7 performances then the Thunder could run away early with a Game 1 victory.

Series Bet: 

·      At (+165), the Clippers are a bigger underdog than the aforementioned Washington Wizards are in their second round series with Indy.  Why?  Well because Vegas realizes OKC (-190) faced perhaps their toughest matchup in the opening round and a hampered Chris Paul spells disaster for LA.  Both teams have “championship or bust” mentalities but OKC ‘s is more realistic, given the match-ups. 

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